Forecast verification

the receipt, not the promise

Every forecast this site issues is logged at issuance and later scored against what the airport's weather station actually reported. No forecast probability appears publicly for an airport until its calibrated model beats that airport's own 10-year climatology on Brier score over live verification — a pre-registered bar, not a vibe.

Status: shadow mode — the engine has been issuing and logging hourly forecasts since 2026-07-21. Scores publish here, per airport, as verification accumulates. Airports that never clear the bar simply never show percentages.

Method: guidance from the NOAA/NWS National Blend of Models, recalibrated per airport against ten years of METAR truth at four thresholds (vis < 1 mi / ½ mi / ¼ mi, and below-CAT-I). Verification obs come from the same live feed the maps use. Bar rule: at least 3,000 verified forecast/outcome pairs and 10 observed event-hours, then the calibrated model must beat that airport's own climatology on Brier score at both the public and the pro threshold. Full methodology.